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May 13, 2022

NIFTY Finds No Buying Support Near 16000- Lower Levels to Come ?

Contrary to what we thought, the expiry day witnessed sharp sell off with the market testing 15700 levels. Albeit the 15700 levels were defended there was no buying that one could see at those levels. This morning the index gapped up, but could not sustain the momentum once it reached near 16100 levels. For the index, 16100-16150 is a crucial level to watch out for any strong upmove. The days to come in this series can witness sharp moves on the upside, but we maintain the view that till the time the market reclaims 16100-16150 on a closing basis, the index remain a sell on rise market. The next set of support may come near 15560/15300/15100.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the performance of this study by clicking on the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/Ir4Dsulb-NIFTY-Finds-No-Buying-Support-Near-16000-Lower-Levels-to-Come/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

May 11, 2022

NIFTY- Bounce Back to 16400-16560 On the Cards  ?

Though the index opened flat in the morning, the bulls did manage to test 17300. However soon the selling resumed and the index breached 16000 briefly. From the lows of the day the index climbed more than 200 points and managed to close above 16200. On the options front one could see call writing at 16200 levels onwards and if the index gaps up tomorrow by 200 points or more all the shorts from 16200 to 16400 will run for cover. In case the index opens flat we may get to see a very volatile weekly expiry. As of now the selling seem to have been arrested. Nonetheless global cues remain important in deciding further course of market action. If the selling resumes then one may see the market test the earlier support placed near 156700. Fresh positions may be avoided given that tomorrow is weekly expiry.
Important levels are marked in the chart.
Disclaimer:
Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.
You can track the progress of this study by clicking on the link below
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/D39N9SX6-NIFTY-Bounce-Back-to-16400-16560-On-the-Cards/

May 06, 2022

Gap Down Opening in NIFTY- Day Closes As a Doji At Support

 

As mentioned in our earlier study, NIFTY did test 16400 and though the bears managed to bring the index below 17400, the closing was above 17400. Given that the index traded with such a narrow range and closed the day with a doji at the support, indicates that the market would need fresh cues for a move in either direction. With the announcement of Reliance results and also the Russian Victory day on monday, May 9 the market has sufficient reasons to move in either direction. The intraday stability which the index demonstrated near 17350-17340 zone and the fact that the index closed above 17400 possibly indicate that the market can see some short covering rally if there is any positive news. However if the results are negative then the index can fall further. The immediate upside targets can be 16500/16600 and if those get taken out the next targets can be 16700/16860. The index could face some resistance in that zone. If those levels get taken out then the index can even test 17000/17160. On the downside the immediate targets can be 16100/15800.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the performance of this study by clicking in the following link.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/6vd2NYt1-Gap-Down-Opening-in-NIFTY-Day-Closes-As-a-Doji-At-Support/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.


May 04, 2022

Massive Sell Off in NIFTY- 16400 Next ?

 

Though the index gapped up, the gap up got sold of instantly and the selling continued throughout the day dragging the market below 16860 which was a strong support in the recent past. Bank Nifty which showed some kind of resilience in the morning also fell drastically and closed almost 2.5 percent down. Though the Fed meeting is scheduled today, that is more of a known event for the market with the Fed Chairman already having indicated the possible rate hike. Tomorrow being the weekly expiry the market could be very volatile. Options data reveal that the index may try to take support near 16400-16300 zone while the resistance will remain near 16800-16880. If the market gaps up or down tomorrow near to the zones mentioned, a trade in the opposite direction with the targets mentioned can be administered.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

 

You can track the progress of this study by clicking on the link below

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/XMIwCMTh-Massive-Sell-Off-in-NIFTY-16400-Next/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 29, 2022

NIFTY- Witnesses Huge Intraday Volatility- What to Expect Next ?

 

Taking cues from the global market the index opened positive and managed to sustain with out much difficulty till most part of the day. However as soon as the index reached near 17400, the market stalled and multiple attempts to surpass that level did not materialize. Finally the buying lost steam and people started booking profits which brought the index near to 17300 levels. One could then see an attempt from the bears to bring the market down further and at least partially they succeeded. The index did test 17100, but defended it successfully. If the market is able to hold the current levels over the weekend and start strong in the next week, one could see the index trying to test 17480-17660. If however the market breaks todays lows and closes firmly below it, the index can move to 16900-16700 levels.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking on the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/HtpcGe3Z-NIFTY-Witnesses-Huge-Intraday-Volatility-What-to-Expect-Next/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 26,2022

NIFTY Gaps Up and Closes Above 17200- Trade Carefully

After two days of gap down, today was a good day for Bulls as the index gapped up and managed to trade strong and close above 17200.  The Index could find resistance near 17280-17360 zone. If that gets taken out confidently we can expect an upmove testing the strength of bearish positions built near 17500-17600. If the Index fail to surpass the resistance zone it is likely to come down to 17100-16900 levels. Considering that monthly expiry is two days from now it is better to start looking for trading opportunities in the next expiry contract as before the market makes any big move it could consolidate. For the current expiry Options data indicate fresh call writing in 17350 level onwards and one could see fresh put writing from 17000 to 17400 strikes with the highest put writing at 17000.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking on the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/3pnQF70U-NIFTY-Gaps-Up-and-Closes-Above-17200-Trade-Carefully/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 25, 2022

NIFTY defend Support- Possible Head and Shoulder in Lower Time Frame

In our previous study we had indicated that there is a possible Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in NIFTY and we had also mentioned the key support that must not be broken for the pattern to be valid. Today the market tested that support and managed to close above 16900. However the overall market sentiment seem to be favoring the bears. The fall in NIFTY today was arrested to a great extent by Bank NIFTY which closed in the green after opening with a gap of nearly 500 points. The banking stocks did manage to show strength on the back of ICICI results and HDFC bank dividend news. However the Bank Nifty futures closed with a premium of over 200 points compared to the spot and this can be a cause of concern. It may be possible that the Bank NIFTY gaps down tomorrow and NIFTY falls along with it. Just the way we spotted Inverted Head and shoulders, we can find a possible Head and Shoulders pattern (which is a bearish pattern) in the nearer time frame. The neckline placed near seem to have been compromised  and if the pattern plays out well we may see NIFTY near 16600-16400 levels.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the performance of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/6fVyjWds-NIFTY-defend-Support-Possible-Head-n-Shlder-in-Lower-Time-Frame/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author.

April 22, 2022

Possible Inverted Head & Shoulders in NIFTY ?

 

Profit booking and global cues dragged the index below 17200 , however the index has closed near an area where one could see good support based on OI analysis. Nonetheless if the index breaks this support zone then one could see levels close to 16800-16780 which has acted as a strong support zone in the immediate past. In the lower time frame chart one cans pot an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern in NIFTY. For the pattern to be operational the support placed near 16800 must not be broken and once the price moves convincingly above 17900-18000 levels where the neck line is placed, it is very likely that NIFTY will test its all-time high and even cross 19000. However please be cautious that patterns like these can be spotted in the market all the time and for the pattern to play out as per technical analysis principles all conditions of the pattern needs to be met.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/UNe3WPCc-Possible-Inverted-Head-Shoulders-in-NIFTY/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 21, 2022

 

Short Covering and Fresh Buying Lifts NIFTY on Expiry Day

With the index opening on a strong note with close to 100 points and having sustained it in the first hour, the indications for expiry were very clear. Market did not make any hasty move and one could see sustained conquering of the multiple supply points in the intra day chart. However there are still good amount of shorts in the system in 17200-17600 zone  and this could create challenges for further up move beyond 17600. In case these shorts get covered then we can see a massive short covering rally all the way to 17800 levels.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/amftHNR3-Short-Covering-and-Fresh-Buying-Lifts-NIFTY-on-Expiry-Day/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 20, 2022
NIFTY Reclaims 17100- Levels to Watch for Weekly Expiry

NIFTY opened on a positive note and traded strongly in the positive side throughout the day. In the intraday chart the index made a triple bottom near 17150 levels and that could act as the strong support for the expiry. On the upside immediate resistance may come near 17260-17300 levels. Tomorrow being expiry day we may see volatility. However the broad range seem to be 17000 to 17260 for the weekly expiry. If in the open if the range mentioned is challenged by a gap down or gap up then it is wise to sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to stabilize. Otherwise trading near the boundaries once the boundaries are respected at least in 15 minute candle could prove to be profitable.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.
You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/2sOXDHfE-NIFTY-Reclaims-17100-Levels-to-Watch-for-Weekly-Expiry/
Disclaimer:
Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 19,2022
All Hell Breaks Loose ! NIFTY Below 17000
In our previous analysis we mentioned that before making any fresh downward move the index is likely to test the previous price action zone of 17300-17360 in the futures segment the market did test  17300 and got rejected from those levels. For most part of the day the market trade sideways trying to defend yesterday's low and attempting to push the prices upwards. However the last hour trade witnessed massive fall of close to 450 points ! The put premiums of strikes near 17000,16900 and 16800 went through the roof. On options front one could see short covering from 16950 onwards while fresh put writing was seen from 16900 to 16650 levels. One could see fresh call writing at all strikes all the way up to 16650 strikes. The weekly expiry max pain is around 17100 as per options data. A break up of the OI addition corresponding to the fall in the last 40 minutes suggest that unless the index is able to successfully test the call writers in 17000-17100 zone we can see more down move which can take the market to 16700-16600 levels.

Important levels are marked in the chart.
You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/PgEJ4CH6-All-Hell-Breaks-Loose-NIFTY-Below-17000/
Disclaimer:
Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 18, 2022

NIFTY- Closes Below 17200 But Takes Support Near 17100
Adjusting for the downward move witnessed in other global indices Indian Bench Mark Index gapped down almost 300 points. But from the day's open the index lost another 120 points, nonetheless managed to gain almost 80 percent of the day's loss from the open and closed near the day's open. The Russia Ukraine war worries have accentuated in the recent past given the proximity of Russian Victory Day celebrations on May 9. Political analysts expect the intensity of Russian invasion to increase in the coming weeks. This can act as a trigger for the global markets to fall further. In the context of NIFTY the price action suggests that the market may test 17300-17360 zones before making any fresh down move.
Important Levels are marked in the chart.
You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/GBPvzpr9-NIFTY-Closes-Below-17200-But-Takes-Support-Near-17100/
Disclaimer:
Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 12, 2022

NIFTY- Weakness Continue - Braze for Expiry Volatility

As per the study given on April 11, the index took support exactly at the zone provided in the chart and bounced back. However trading throughout the day remained week and one could see short positions being added throughout the day near 17600-17550 levels. The fact that market closed below these levels indicate that 17550-17600 will remain as a crucial level for the markets tomorrow. If these levels get taken out on the upside we can see short covering which can take the index closer to 17700 levels. On the downside we can expect support coming in at 17420-17360 levels which is a crucial level for the index to retain the current upmove.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/AqJlkOG4-NIFTY-Weakness-Continue-Braze-for-Expiry-Volatility/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 11, 2022

NIFTY Trades Choppy- Earning Season Blues ?

 

The Index made an inside candle in the daily chart and closed below 17700 for the day. As discussed in our study dated April 8, the market is likely to remain in the range of 17860-17360.  Nifty seem to have lost its upward momentum at least temporarily. We see the market in a consolidation phase with 17360-17320 as the lower end of the consolidation phase. In case of any upmove it may be a good idea to build short positions. However given that this is a short week it is advisable to refrain from making aggressive short positions. The FnO data suggest profit booking in NIFTY and moderate short build up in Bank Nifty. Given that NIFTY and Bank Nifty closed near respective immediate support zones any breach of these levels can take the market to the lower end of the consolidation phase mentioned above.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/XxuYCYuF-NIFTY-Trades-Choppy-Earning-Season-Blues/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 08, 2022

NIFTY Bounces from Intra-Day Low- Closes Below 17800

Though the Bears tried testing 17600 in the morning itself 17600 was defended and the index rallied from 17600 to 17840 levels as marked in our study dated April 7. The price however could not remain stable above 17800 and we saw the price trading sideways between 17840 and 17760. A fresh up move is possible only if the index manages to close above 17860 levels convincingly. If that does not happen we are of the opinion that the price movement can be between 17860 and 17360 levels in the short term. The medium term chart structure remain bullish in higher time frame till 17100 is breached  decisively. As long as the index remain range bound one can employ option strategies aimed to profit from sideways market.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/GT1UZvGH-NIFTY-Bounces-from-Intra-Day-Low-Closes-Below-17800/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 07, 2022

NIFTY Breaks Below 17700 - Price Movement To Remain Choppy ?

 

As suggested in our study yesterday (April 06) the index traded between 17800 and 17600. While an intraday attempt was made to reclaim 17800 which was an important level from a price action perspective, the bears defended their territory and pushed the prices down to 17700 and even attempted to breach 17600, alas with no success. Nonetheless the call writers at 17600 levels upwards would have made handsome reward in the weekly expiry. If the price had defended 17800 on a closing basis the upmove started from 17000 would have comfortably continued. Now that the index has closed below 17700, it is possible for the index to test 17460-17530 levels and if those levels hold then the market could remain sideways till either 17800 or 17460 or broken decisively.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/N5bLNhEX-NIFTY-Breaks-Below-17700-Price-Movement-To-Remain-Choppy/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 06,2022

NIFTY Guards 17800- Fed Minutes to Guide Expiry Day Trade

The Index opened with a gap down as suggested by yesterday’s price action and options data. The day witnessed mixed price movement. Though the first part of the trading day witnessed some attempt to scare those who shorted the index in the open after the gap down, the bears strongly held their positions in the second half and offered strong resistance near 17900. While the index did manage to bounce back multiple times from below 17800 the day’s closing was mildly above 17800. Along with this one could see fresh Call and Put writing in the strikes from 17600-17850, which could act as the trading range for tomorrow. Tomorrow being expiry the market could remain volatile and hence fresh positions may be avoided for tomorrow unless the trading opportunity presents itself near the boundaries mentioned or the market comes up with a very clear trend. If the index gaps down on account of what the global traders read from the Fed Minutes which will be made available today during US market hours 17650-17580 could act as support. On the upside 17850-17900 can be the immediate resistance.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/7exE3cIH-NIFTY-Guards-17800-Fed-Minutes-to-Guide-Expiry-Day-Trade/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 05, 2022

NIFTY Gets Jittery Near 18000- Could Test Bulls Near 17800

As discussed in our study yesterday ( April 4) the index could not convincingly close above 18060 levels and consequently got dragged to test the strength of 17900 levels. The call writers who wanted to keep NIFTY below 18000 managed to do so for the day and the put writers had to give in some ground that they gained yesterday and last week. In the absence of any major news the Index seem to be comfortable trading in the range of 18160-17800. Since the weekly expiry is day after tomorrow's price action will be interesting to watch. On the options side one could see short covering near 18250-18300 strikes fresh put writing was seen in 17950/18000/18100/18200 strikes. On the call option side fresh call writing was seen from 18000 to 18300 strikes. One could also see long unwinding of calls from 17900 to 17300 strikes.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study by clicking on the link below

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/LwkmspV4-NIFTY-Gets-Jittery-Near-18000-Could-Test-Bulls-Near-17800/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 04, 2022

 

NIFTY- Bears Run for Cover - Index Above 18000- Trade Cautiously

Nifty gapped up more than 120 points and rallied almost 450 points intraday making it one of the strongest up moves recently. 17800 which had acted as a strong resistance for quite some time was taken out in the morning which resulted in massive call unwinding at all levels up to17950. Fresh call writing was seen at 18100/18000 levels. Though the index showed strength in the morning some of the gains were given away from 10.30 till 12.45. Despite that the index did manage to climb back above 18000, 18050-18080 proved to be a strong resistance zone. Given the price action and the options data we can see fresh up move to18200/1828/18340 zones only if the index manages to close above the 18100 level confidently. On the downside one could see 17900/17800 levels if the index fails to hold 18000 tomorrow.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the url below

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/oDefzemw-NIFTY-Bears-Run-for-Cover-Index-Above-18000-Trade-Cautiously/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

April 1, 2022

 

NIFTY Conquers 17500 !- April Looks Exciting for Bulls

 

April series began with an absolutely fantastic bullish day where the market comfortably crossed 17500 in the first hour and then maintaining the ground throughout the fore noon session. Though the area between 17500 and 17560 remained choppy for most part of morning once the European markets opened the index steadily climbed up to test 17600. The explosive move came in the last 30 minutes where the index gained more than 100 points and settled comfortably above 17600. As mentioned in our study on 31 March the short term chart structure remains bullish. The earlier support which was placed near 17000 could now move up to 17560-17480 zone. As long as these levels are defended on a closing basis the index can move higher. With the India Vix falling more than 10 percent today short positions created near 17600 to 17900 levels seem to have gotten jittery. In the coming week in the absence of any fresh negative news one could see the index attempting to test 17900 -18060 levels.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/9AaQ7luL-NIFTY-Conquers-17500-April-Looks-Exciting-for-Bulls/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 31, 2020

In March NIFTY Sees 1800 Points Up move  But Closes Below 17500

 

March was indeed a good month for the bulls. The index gained more than 1800 points and recovered clos to 61 percent of the loss from the fall which started last October. However those who followed yesterday's price action wont be surprised that NIFTY failed to close above 17500 in the March expiry. Traders who wrote 17500 short straddles did indeed find that trade performing very will. Those who wrote the options yesterday and carried forward would have collected close to 133 points and would have retained close to 98 points from the straddle. However on the daily chart the  index still shows a bullish trend with price in the daily chart printing higher highs and higher lows. The short term term trend remain strongly bullish with strong support seen at 17000 levels in the weekly chart. On the higher side the next resistance can come near 17660-17730 range.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/LqmL5Fxc-In-March-NIFTY-Sees-1800-Points-Up-move-But-Closes-Below-17500/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 30, 2022

NIFTY- Unstable Near 17500- Tread with Caution

 

As we discussed in our study on March 29 the index did test the 17500 levels. NIFTY opened 150 points higher compared to previous close but didn't move much to the upside. From the high the market dropped close to 140 points but recovered and closed near 17500. The price action near 17500 paints a choppy picture. The index did not manage to close above 17500 except for one 30 minutes candle at 10.45 AM. For the rest of the day the bears defended 17500 successfully.  One could see fresh call writing in 17500 to 17600 strikes indicating these levels to be the immediate top for the series. On the put option side fresh contracts were added in the 17400-17500 strikes indicating that the lower levels for the series. Max pain was found to be at 17400 strike. In the absence of any significant news (positive or negative) we may see the March expiry to be in the region of 17650-17350 as per the chart and options data. Trading near these boundaries expecting reversal could be employed.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/kNUrJAAr-NIFTY-Unstable-Near-17500-Tread-with-Caution/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 29, 2022

NIFTY- Base Building Seen near 17200

 

 

The Indian benchmark index traded confidently today above 17200 levels and one can see that the market has made a base around 17200 levels in the intraday chart. One could see call unwinding till 17250 levels and long build up from 17300 to 17450 strikes on call options front indicating that the market could look at 17450-17500 as the immediate upside targets. However fresh call writing was seen from 17550-17650 strikes indicating that to be the short term top for the current series. The chart structure also suggests similar targets. As long as NIFTY defends 17200 intraday the market can climb higher levels this series.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/pfBk0j0K-NIFTY-Base-Building-Seen-near-17200/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 28, 2022

Double Bottom Near 17000- Nifty Poised for Higher Targets

 

 

Today was yet another day where the bulls defended 17000 mark conclusively and pushed the index higher. While the market tried to break the 17000 mark twice today the long positions built near 17000,16900 did not seem perturbed. Fresh put writing was seen from 17000 to 17350 levels. Given that we are nearing monthly expiry it is possible that the market may remain volatile. However the  index can test 17500-17650 on the upside if the bulls are able to defend 17200 on a closing basis. On the downside if the 17000 marks is breached we may see the next support near 16940-16840 levels.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/QuTTvFKN-Double-Bottom-Near-17000-Nifty-Poised-for-Higher-Targets/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 25, 2022

 

NIFTY- Finding Support Near 17000

 

After a choppy expiry the market opened with a gap up. But the gap up got sold off in the beginning itself and we could see consistent selling at all levels. As pointed out in our study on 23 March, the index tried to take support near 17100 levels but breached the same intraday. However there was a last hour relief rally which pushed the index to close above 17150. 16960 and 16840 are the levels to watch out for on the downside. If the market breaches those levels and closes below we could see more downside. For the prices to test higher levels the index needs to comfortably close above 17300. Next week being monthly expiry it is better not to initiate any fresh positions.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/6AgdcWaU-NIFTY-Finding-Support-Near-17000/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 23, 2022

NIFTY- Resistance Near 17500

 

The index opened above 17400, but the gap up got sold off quickly and tested 17200 on the downside. Though 17200 was defended, and rallied close to 100 points from the intraday low, the market closed for the day lower indicating sellers were active throughout the trading session. Tomorrow being expiry day we may expect the market to be volatile. From the options data, we can see that the Max Pain as on today is at 17300. However we can see fresh call writing in 1700/250 levels as well. On the put option side fresh writing was seen near 17150 levels. If the market gaps up above 17300 and sustains above 17300, one could see call unwinding at 17500/17600 level which can propel the market to higher targets as mentioned in our study of March 22. However if the index gaps down and sustains below 17200, the long positions held near 17000/16900 could get jittery and we may see a move towards 16900 or even 16860 levels.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/eliQ8ck4-NIFTY-Resistance-Near-17500/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 22, 2022

Retracements Done- NIFTY to Test 17500 -17600 this week?

 

Our study dated 21 March had indicated the possible support zones in case NIFTY attempts to retrace and test the strength of the recent up move. As per the levels indicated in the chart, the index took support near 61.8 % Fib levels and defended the 17000 mark. Shrugging the early hour down move the market rallied more than 300 points from intraday low and comfortably settled above 17300. If overnight negative news doesn't emerge it is possible for NIFTY to test 17500-17600 in the next two trading sessions. 17200-17130 could be the immediate support levels.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/z8RAOcM8-Retracements-Done-NIFTY-to-Test-17500-17600-this-week/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 21, 2022

NIFTY- Testing the Strength of Recent Up move

 

As mentioned in our last study on 17 March, Nifty has started testing the strength of the recent up move. After rallying close to 1650 points from the March lows, the index seem to be taking a breather before attempting the next up move. If the key retracement levels can be successfully defended the market can attempt new highs. With no fresh negative news on the domestic and international front and with the corporate earnings season in close proximity, the market could continue its northward journey without much obstacles. EoD  FnO data should provide some indication whether today's downward move was because of profit booking. In the absence of major negative stimuli we maintain a positive bias on the NIFTY as long as the 16800-16900 levels are respected on closing basis.

Key levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/YSbOfZQd-NIFTY-Testing-the-Strength-of-Recent-Upmove/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 17, 2022

NIFTY- Settles Above 17200 Comfortably- What Next ?

With markets around the globe rallying the Indian index also followed suit and opened with a big gap up. Though the gap up did not see strong follow through buying, there was very minimal selling pressure as well. For the most part of the day the index traded in a narrow range after the opening but successfully defended 17250-17300 zones. With the Fed having announced 25 basis points rate increase as anticipated by the market the prices seem to have discounted that rate hike. However with the Fed tightening the monetary policy liquidity issues are certainly expected to crop up which can have a negative impact on FII activity and the Indian market could also witness the impact of the same. Having added close to 1700 points in the last weeks, the index may see some profit booking. If that happens the retracement levels to watch out for from the day's close is marked in the chart. Successful testing of retracement levels could see further up move to targets of 17500-17700.

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the progress of this study in the link below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/DAjquwd1-NIFTY-Settles-Above-17200-Comfortably-What-Next/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 16 , 2022

Flag and Pole Breakout Seen- NIFTY On the Way to 17300 ?

After keeping the index near to 16900 levels for most part of the day the bearish positions built near 16900-17000 strikes seem to have given up. The index comfortably closed above the 16900 mark and is seen to be headed towards 17300 levels. The global markets also were green through out the trading session which probably added to the confidence of the bulls. Given that the US Fed is meeting today to decide about rate hike the response of global markets to the Fed decision will decide tomorrow's market move. Markets around the world  seem to have factored in a 25 basis point rate hike. Since it is weekly expiry, it is important to analyze options data as well to form an opinion about  tomorrow's index price movement.  From the options data one can see that there is OI built up in 17100-17250, with the highest OI being added at 17250 strike which could act as the immediate resistance for the weekly expiry.  On the Put front 16900 and 17000 strikes witnessed the highest OI addition suggesting that these strikes could offer support on the expiry day.

 

Important Levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/HluTvVN3-Flag-and-Pole-Breakout-Seen-NIFTY-On-the-Way-to-17300/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 15, 2022

NIFTY- 16900 Call Writers Wins the Day !

 

As discussed in our study on 14th March, 16900 strike which witnessed significant call writing in the weekly contract acted as stiff resistance for the index today. Though the index attempted to breach the mark and succeeded, the up move was quickly sold off and then the index witnessed slow but consistent selling through out most of the day. The long wick candle formed in the last part of the day in hourly chart suggest the presence of buyers near 16500 levels . What needs to be seen however is whether the buying interest near those levels will sustain or not. Given that the Hongkong and Chinese markets witnessed heavy selling pressure due to the lockdown worries in China , it is possible that the Asian markets we may see some spill over effect in other regional markets including India. If the bulls manage to defend 16400-16500 on a closing basis the index could continue to test the strength of short positions on the upside. Options data indicates OI built up in 16700 strike for both calls and puts. One could see fresh puts being written in 16400-16300 strikes indicating that the lower bound for the weekly expiry could be in that range.

Important Levels are marked in the chart

 

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/YqTdkcpf-NIFTY-16900-Call-Writers-Wins-the-Day/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 14, 2022

 

NIFTY Breaks Short Term Resistance- 17060 -17100 On the Cards ?

 

After forming an inside bar on Friday, the index firmly took support at 16600 and marched confidently upwards breaking the top end of the Friday inside bar. The market witnessed consistent buying throughout the day and the 16700-16600 bearish positions seem to have given in for now. On the upside the index can now aim to look for 17060-17160 as the next target. Buying support could come in near 16760-16710 levels. The current weekly expiry could see some more short covering as the market moves closer to 17000-17100 levels. Options data also support the view with short positions getting covered at all strikes up 16750. Fresh call writing was seen at 16900-16950 strikes which could act as immediate resistance zones. However once index settles comfortably above 16800 these short positions could get covered since the next resistance as per chart is in the 17060-17160 levels where one could see fresh short positions getting added.

Important levels are marked in the chart

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/QDQ7IUON-NIFTY-Breaks-Short-Term-Resistance-17060-17100-On-the-Cards/

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 11, 2022

NIFTY Trades Range Bound- Sit on Side-lines Seem a Good Idea !

 

After a gap up opening and subsequent sell off yesterday, today the market opened gap down but covered the gap in the early part of the day itself. However 16700 was a strong resistance for the day as the price could not breach it even once during the day. On the lower side 16500-16470 acted as strong support. The market traded for most part of the day sideways which could have seriously disappointed option buyers. The sideways market would have allowed the option sellers to extract the most out of the option price in terms of time value. On the daily chart the price action formed an inside bar with 16500-16700 acting as support and resistance respectively. The index has to break and sustain these levels for providing a directional bias. Fresh positions with a directional bias may be avoided , and for now sitting out waiting for a clear signal seem to be the best idea.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart.

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

 

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/gXqw59pL-NIFTY-Trades-Range-Bound-Sit-on-Sidelines-Seem-a-Good-Idea/

March 10, 2022

NIFTY Unable to Hold on to Gap Up- What to Expect Next ?

 

The index opened with a significant gap up of more than 400 points. However the gap up got sold off in the initial hours and the attempt to retest morning highs failed as selling resumed. From the top the index sold off more than 300 points, but found support near 16450 levels. From the day’s low the index again rallied close to 150 points and closed near 16600. The session remained choppy with a downward bias. While the other major global markets (both US and Europe) rallied heavily yesterday, with the some European markets rallying over 6 percent it was expected that the Indian bench mark index will also follow suit. However the initial euphoria from positive global cues and domestic election results , along with expiry excitement did not help the bulls.

The high made today could remain a strong resistance , and taking off today's high and closing above it confidently, could take the market to 17200 levels. However, today's price action suggests that the bearish positions built near 16700-16600 seem to be unaffected despite positive political news at the global and national level. On the downside 16300-16280 could act as support and if those levels are breached there can be another bout of strong selling.

Important levels are marked in the chart.

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/xC42qwvq-NIFTY-Unable-to-Hold-on-to-Gap-Up-What-to-Expect-Next/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

March 09, 2022

Second Day of Bullishness In Index- Tread Cautiously

 

As discussed in our analysis yesterday, the index made consistent up move and successfully tested and defended the 16160-16260 levels . For the day the index closed above 16300 and it is possible that the index may attempt to scare the bearish positions built around 16600. Tomorrow being expiry day and also being the election results day for five states, the market move can be very choppy. On the downside the index could find support near 16180-16140 one and on the upside selling pressure could be seen near 16580-16630 zones. Fresh positions may be initiated near the trading boundaries in the opposite direction with tight stop loss as we believe the market will be within the range mentioned above.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart

You can track the performance of this analysis in the link given below.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/TLDNNSk3-Second-Day-of-Bullishness-In-Index-Tread-Cautiously/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

 

March 08, 2022

NIFTY Took Support at 15700- War Worries Over ?

 

As mentioned in our post yesterday, the market took support near 15700 though it breached 15700 intraday. The afternoon session saw convincing bounce from the support zone created yesterday and the market crossed the 16000 mark and closed above it. From the lows of the day the up move was strong enough to create a bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart. Since the yesterday candle was a doji, a candle that signifies indecision; todays candle indicates that the days battle was won by the bulls and that the bears below 16000 may not have much strength at least in the shorter time frame.

 

However the selling pressure in 16000-16300 levels is still quite strong as per the chart and options data. Any positive news about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war can help the market test these levels. As long as the lows made this week so far remain intact on a daily closing basis we are of the view that the market can test the strength of sellers who became bearish below 16600 levels. With another two days for the weekly expiry the index could test 16160-16240 levels and may even close in that zone if no fresh negative news comes out.

 

Important levels are marked in the chart.

 

You can track the performance of this analysis here

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/G3SrmY3U-NIFTY-Took-Support-at-15700-War-Worries-Over/

 

Disclaimer:

Center for Research in Financial Markets and Economy (C- FAME) is an initiative of the School of Business & Management at Christ Academy Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. The views presented here are for educational purposes only. C- FAME or the author does not take any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the view presented here.

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